As per Ian Bremmer in The New Rules of Globalization, Guarded Globalization is still Globalization, but more selective. He clarifies saying: governments of developing nations (…) choose the countries or regions with which they want to do business, pick the sectors in which they will allow capital investment, and select the local, often state-owned, companies they wish to promote.
Other economists may think that Guarded Globalization means the end of free trade (basis of globalization). What countries nowadays possible want to avoid is the global interdependence that has been built over the years, causing static wages, lower-skilled workers unemployment and the recent crisis. Furthermore, is very well-know that wealth has been distributed unequally; only six countries have accumulated the income that globalisation has produced, says economist Richard Baldwin in his book, The Great Convergence.
Zhang Yun mention in his article Unexpected Turn: A Future of ‘Guarded Globalization’: countries will start building transparent walls to reduce the risk of, for example, economic sanctions, export controls, and the impact of Global Financial Crisis like the one in 2008. He assures that Globalization will still continue, but it will be completely different from the one we know. He calls for a Globalization not so interdependence neither Guarded, but constructed on the basis of a multilateral framework and consensus.
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In October 2016, Martin Wolf argued that globalization had lost dynamism, due to the exhaustion of new markets to exploit and a rise of protectionist policies in the world. He makes this assumption based on Larry Summers (former chief economist of the World Bank, former Treasury secretary, president emeritus of Harvard, former economic adviser to President Barack Obama) claim: the basic responsibility of government is to maximise the welfare of citizens, not to pursue some abstract concept of the global good.
Mr O’Sullivan’s reflects in his book, “The Levelling: What’s Next after Globalisation” a multi polar world forming but international institutions unprepared for this.
All this allusions give us an idea that economists more or less agree that globalization is taking a step back. Countries are trying to revive national identity and governments want the power back that multinationals have winning over then for the past decades.
Looking at these statements, I wouldn’t say that Guarded Globalization is not Globalization. I agree with Zhang Yun. Countries building barriers may reduce the impact from global crisis may be a temporary solution, as the world is still suffering the consequences of the crisis in 2008. Governments might start to be more selective regarding which kind of companies they permit entering their frontiers, but the global trade will still be necessary.
The interconnection, interactivity, interrelation that we’re still building thanks to technology shouldn’t be an obstacle for countries to grow, but an opportunity of doing it equitably. I think that Global Institutions (like the World Bank, World Trade Organization, OECD…) are also guilty of today’s scenario. They were built in a completely different scenario, to give an answer to completely different needs. If countries try to restructure these institutions, to give solutions to nowadays problems, we can leave behind us this period of incertitude.
