Every decade, the United States Census Bureau surveys and counts every resident in the United States of America. The data collected by the Census then determines the number of seats each state has in the United States of Representatives and also is used to distribute billions of federal funds to communities. The next Census, which is the 2020 Census is set to include a question about citizenship status. The reinstatement of the question on citizenship status in in the United States has no place on the 2020 Census. As a matter of fact, the citizenship status question on the 2020 Census is problematic. Consequently, it will result in an undercount, hurt communities, and it violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Information Quality Act also known as the Data Quality Act.
The Census is designed to count resident population in the United States of America regardless of citizenship status. That is to say, both residents and non-residents are included in the Census count to accurately determine the total population in the United States. With the addition of the question regarding citizenship status on the 2020 Census, it will cause immigrants to avoid the Census resulting in an undercount.
Notably, the addition of the citizenship status question will harm counts in America where Hispanics are most likely to live. According to US Census Bureau (2016), “57.5 million, the Hispanic population of the United States as of July 1, 2016, making people of Hispanic origin the nation’s largest ethnic or racial minority. Hispanics constituted 17.8 percent of the nation’s total population” (para. 3). Considering this, Hispanics will be extremely undercounted and underrepresented.
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The recent focus on immigration under the Trump administration has undocumented citizens and their families fearing law enforcement officials. As a consequence, there will be less immigrants participating in the survey for the 2020 Census for fear that they may be targeted. Recently, undocumented residents have been warned not to answer the door for fear of deportation. This will make it more difficult for Census employees to access them.
As stated by Tarran (2018), “members of Congress and the American Statistical Association (ASA) have objected to the inclusion of a citizenship question because it may deter immigrants from participating in the 2020 Census, leading to lower response rates and a commensurate increase in costs as fieldworkers are forced to contact a greater number of non-responding households” (para. 4). Despite, the United States Census Bureau having to send workers out on multiple occasions to attempt to reach households who have not responded to the census in order to collect the information according to Overberg and Adamy (2018), “…millions of households could get missed.
After the 2010 Census, the bureau estimated that it had counted the overall population accurately, but that is had double-counted millions, especially middle-aged whites, and missed millions of minorities. It overcounted whites by 0.8% and undercounted Hispanics by 1.5% and blacks by 2.1%. That translated into 1% undercount in Texas and an overcount of 0.8% in New York” (para. 11). It is important to realize, residents who are missed or who dodge the Census, whether it is out of fear of deportation or because of the distrust of the government these individuals simply do not get counted.
Not to mention, the addition of the citizenship status question to the 2020 Census does not only affect undocumented immigrants from responding to the survey. Whether the immigrant participating in the 2020 census is documented or undocumented the individual will question whether or not to share their information with the United States government. According to the US Census Bureau (2016), Nine states including, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Texas have a population of 1 million or more Hispanic residents in 2016. (para. 9).
Being that, there are many mixed-status Hispanic families as well as the Trump’s administrations statements on being anti-Hispanic and anti-immigrants the people may avoid the question and the Census altogether. As a result, there will be an undercount in the overall population in many states. That being the case, all the population data collected on the 2020 Census will be flawed which will hurt many communities.
The Census has been used over hundreds of decades to determine who we are and what we need as Americans. As stated above, the added citizenship question on the 2020 Census has the ability to affect population data. On the condition that the population data is dramatically flawed, there will be a negative impact to numerous communities. The United States’ Census count of residents in any community will determine political, economic, and social decisions.
On the subject of political decisions, the Constitutional basis for the decennial census is to determine how the 435 United States House of Representatives are allocated. Population numbers produced by the census determine political districts. A skewed census would hurt the places in America where there is an immense Hispanic population. According to Galvin (2017), “With changing state populations comes shifts in political power. The 2020 Census count will affect state congressional districts for the 2022 midterm elections, as well as Electoral College votes for the 2024 presidential race. Recent projections from Election Data Services based on Census data reveal that 16 states will likely either gain or lose a congressional seat after the next Census in 2020” (para. 2).
In the event that the addition of the citizenship question to the 2020 Census suppresses participation consequently, flawing population new ways to define population will be created. Provided that, majority of Hispanic and other immigrant populations being in states that swing Democratic, there will be a shift in the nation’s balance of political power from cities to more rural communities. Subsequently, giving Republicans a new advantage when it comes to electoral boundaries.
Certainly, the citizenship status question on the 2020 census will intimidate immigrants resulting in an undercount. Thus, there will be decreased representation in Democratic leaning communities where they tend to live. The United States Census was designed to help ensure minority groups in the count are fully represented despite their citizenship status. The effect of political decisions based on the 2020 Census with the addition of the citizenship question will negatively affect an equal representation of Hispanics and other minority groups politically for the next ten years.
Next, economic decisions are affected by the addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 Census. As has been noted, population numbers by the census also determines the distribution of billions of government funds across the United States of America. Every ten years the United States Census calculates how it will distribute billions of federal funds and programs based on population.
There will be severe consequences pertaining to how federal dollars and will be distributed if there is a population undercount due to the citizenship question being added to the census. The billions of dollars distributed across the United Sates helps to fund federal programs. The effects of underfunding due to a lack of participation from immigrants and minorities will be wide-ranging considering, government agencies and other groups who rely on information provided by the census will receive faulty data.
It is important to realize, the allocation of federal funding can dramatically change based off population trends. There are an estimated 132 federal programs that are funded based on population data generated by the Census. As reported by Shapiro (2017),
Consider as well that every year, the federal government distributes about $600 billion in funds to state and local governments for education, Medicaid and other health programs, highways, housing, law enforcement and much more. To do so, the government uses formulas with terms for each area’s level of education, income or poverty rate, racial and family composition, and more. The decennial Census provides the baseline for those distributions by counting the people with each of those characteristics in each state and Census block.
Similarly, the Census Bureau conducts scores of additional surveys every year on behalf of most domestic departments of government, to help them assess the effectiveness of their programs. Here again, the decennial Census provides the baseline for measuring each program’s progress or lack of it. Without an accurate Census, many states and cities will be denied the full funding they deserve and need, and the federal government will have to fly blind for a decade across a range of important areas (para. 7).
Flawed census information will have negative results for cities and communities where there is a large minority and immigrant population. Information collected by the census provide planning for how communities will grow, plan infrastructure projects, allocate government resources, and economic growth opportunities for the next decade. For example, a community with a population that is consisted of undocumented immigrants that do not respond to the 2020 census because they are reluctant to answer the question of their citizenship status in the United States will result in a decline of federal funding the significant effects of the decrease in funding will last for the next ten years until the next census data is implemented.
Not only are communities with heavy immigrant populations harmed by a decrease in federal funding but also many businesses rely on census data to determine future investments in communities. Immigrants and other minority groups have expressed concerns about the census and the citizenship question that will be added which prompts concerns about an undercount for the 2020 Census. According to Tankersley and Baumgaertner (2018), “It would undermine the integrity of a wide variety of economic data and other statistics that businesses, researchers and policymakers depend on to make decisions, including the numbers that underpin the forecasts for Social Security beneficiaries” (para. 4).
Businesses use the information collected by the census to make critical decisions. For instance, companies use information provided by the census when making decisions regarding the growth of their company. The census provides information on population. The population data helps companies decide where to place their businesses and helps them to plan where to build new locations. However, if the population data is flawed due to the fear immigrants and other minority groups have because of the citizenship status question being added to the 2020 census, companies both big and small will not have the proper information to make informed decisions on where to grow their businesses. As stated by Tankersley and Baumgaertner (2018),
Census data help companies decide where to locate distribution centers to best serve their customers, where to expand or locate new stores and where they have the best chance of seeing a high return on investment. That is why business groups have been particularly concerned about the integrity of that data…Some of those products are heavily used by businesses when determining where to open new stores and expand operations, or even what items to put on their shelves. This affects retail businesses, for sure, but businesses in many other sectors as well… (para. 11).
Census data helps companies run their businesses efficiently, hire wisely, and serve customer’s needs. The information where potential customers are located will be skewed if there is an undercount on the 2020 census due to the addition of the citizenship question and the lack of immigrant and minority participation resulting in communities having less economic growth.
As a final point, the addition of a citizenship status question to the 2020 Census violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Information Quality Act also known as the Data Quality Act. According to research the addition of the citizenship question to the 2020 Census has prompted seventeen states and six major cities to sue the Trump Administration over violation of the two laws.
However, the Trump administration has claimed the addition of the citizenship question to the 2020 census is to enforce the protections of the Voting Rights Act. According to Sohrabji (2018), “‘Having citizenship data at the Census block level will permit more effective enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. Obtaining complete and accurate information to meet this legitimate government purpose outweighs the limited potential adverse impacts,’ said Ross in a press statement” (para. 12). Conversely, a citizenship question on the census has not been asked on the census since 1950, fifteen years prior to the Voting Rights Act becoming a law and will dramatically affect the response rate and jeopardize the overall accuracy of the population count.
On the contrary, adding the citizenship question on the 2020 Census violates a provision of the 1946 Administrative Act. The provision of the Administrative Act 1946 that is violated by the addition of the question about citizenship status on the 2020 Census is the provision that prohibits arbitrary, capricious, or an abuse of discretion. There is no valid reason for the addition of the question being that there are many other ways the government has been protecting the Voting Rights Act.
For example, According to Tarran, “…information on citizenship is already collected via the American Community Survey and that ‘this information has been appropriately used in a variety of Voting Rights Act cases without concern’” Serrano and Meng also state that ‘the communities most affected by the Voting Rights Act have not requested this question for inclusion in the upcoming census’, nor has the Census Bureau’s National Advisory Committee on Racial, Ethnic and Other Populations (NAC)” (para. 8). Considering this, the addition of the citizenship question by the Trump administration is there as an effort to discourage immigrants from responding and to attack states that have large immigrant populations. Furthermore, The United States Constitution mandates an actual enumeration of its residents thus, the addition of the citizenship question on the 2020 Census is wrong for communities heavily populated with immigrants and the United States democracy.
Not only does the question on citizenship status in the United States on the 2020 census violate a provision of the 1946 Administrative Act but it also violates the Information Quality Act which is also known as the Data Quality Act. According to Information Quality. “section 515 directs OMB to issue government-wide guidelines that ‘provide policy and procedural guidance to federal agencies for ensuring and maximizing the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of information (including statistical information) disseminated by federal agencies” (para. 5).
To put it another way, The Information Quality Act requires agencies to set testing and evaluation requirements that result in accurate and reliable data as well as, high response rates by citizens participating in the survey. In spite of the requirements under the Information Quality Act, the Trump Administration rushed the approval of the citizenship question. Furthermore, the Census Bureau failed to test and research the effects of the addition of the citizenship question as it has with all previous changes made to the census in the past.
As a result of the violations of the provision of the 1946 Administration Act and the Information Quality Act also known as the Data Quality Act, caused by the addition of the citizenship status question to the 2020 Census, several states and cities have decided to sue the Trump Administration. The basis of the complaints filed by several cities and states is that the Trump administration rushed the addition of the citizenship question forgoing the Census’ regular procedures for making changes to the census hence, undermining the accuracy of the census. To emphasize, as stated by Millhiser (2018),
“The Census has not asked about citizenship since 1950. Since at least 1980, Census officials of both political parties repeatedly warned that asking about citizenship would, as the government explained in a 1980 lawsuit, ‘inevitably jeopardize the overall accuracy of the population count’ by discouraging immigrants from participating….both the director and the deputy director of the Census repeated a similar warning during the Reagan and Bush administration. In 2009, all eight former Census directors stemming back to 1979 objected to a proposal to add citizenship and immigration questions to the Census, warning that even lawfully present immigrants might ‘avoid enumerators because one or more other household members are present unlawfully.’ In a 2016 brief to the Supreme Court, a bipartisan group of four former Census directors warned that ‘a [person-by-person] citizenship inquiry would invariably lead to a lower response rate to the Census in general’” (para. 10).
Generally, it takes years for the Census Bureau to test and approve changes to its survey. The reason being, the Census Bureau needs to test the in multiple capacities to determine what will be the most effective way to ask the question without compromising the accuracy of the data being collected. The Trump administration rushed the addition of the citizenship question on the 2020 census thus, the question was not adequately tested. The Trump administration has been very vocal about their strong opinions on immigrants both documented and undocumented in the United States. The fear alone the Trump administration has given both documented and undocumented immigrants will result in more immigrants and minorities not responding to the 2020 Census to avoid the citizenship question which will result in an undercount and flawed data.
Ultimately, an addition of a citizenship question to the U.S. 2020 Census is problematic. To emphasize an addition of a citizenship question to the 2020 Census will result in an undercount, it will hurt communities and it violates the Administrative Procedure Act and the Information Quality act also known as the Data Quality Act.
