Table of Contents
From its rise in Iraq and extension into Syria, Afghanistan and Northern Africa to its global recruiting successes and its brutal ideology, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) took the Middle East by storm. The unique organization of ISIS, its powerful message and strong-armed approach have brought this terrorist organization to the forefront in the worlds fight against terrorism.
The rapid spread of ISIS surprised the world as ISIS showcased increased capabilities and horrific attacks not only targeting state governments and foreign military forces but on members of their own religion. Through its leadership, recruiting, funding and radical ideology, ISIS has developed into an inimitable terrorist threat in which the world has not seen before.
ISIS continues to threaten the Middle East and now threatens the United States by showcasing unconventional attack capabilities while inspiring followers outside their own organization to take up their call for violence and attacks. ISIS’s ability to expand their ideology across the world and influence lone wolf attacks makes ISIS a serious and capable threat to the United States. ISIS should not be viewed as an individual group but a radical ideology which reaches around the world.
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History
ISIS began in Iraq as a branch of Al-Qaeda which was established in 2004 to fight coalition forces. The group entered the security vacuum to take advantage of coalition forces presence and the ongoing political-societal Sunni alienation. “During the almost nine years from 2003-2011, the United States military was fighting in Iraq the United States and coalition partners failed to establish an effective Iraqi Army and security forces to fill the newly-created security vacuum” (Meir Amit 2015, 1).
This caused a weak central government and chaos within Iraq. Terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda and others need a weak and failed state to establish a following and become strong with little to no intervention. Iraq was weak and struggling government and thousands of former police and military officers now were out of work following the invasion of Iraq, Al Qaeda in Iraq had the ability to recruit these individuals. America encouraged and supported a Shi’ite regime and alienated the Iraqi Sunni population who had ruled Iraq for many decades.
This caused further instability in the country and turned an already volatile situation between the Iraqi Shi’ite and Sunni population into a flashpoint filled with hate and mistrust. This branch of Al-Qaeda quickly became an influential actor across insurgent organizations fighting coalition forces led by the United States and continued to rise to a stronger power after the withdrawal of coalition forces.
Membership/ Leadership
This branch of Al Qaeda was led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian global jihad operative who trained in the late 1980s and 1990s in Afghanistan under the close eye of Osama bin Laden. Al Qaeda in Iraq waged a terrorist-guerilla war against coalition forces, the Iraqi government and against the minority Shi’ite population. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed by an American air strike in Iraq in June 2006 and this began the transformation and split into a new organization, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI).
“Upon Zarqawi’s death, Al-Qaeda urged the jihadis in Iraq to press on with the caliphate strategy” (Bunzel 2015, 16). Al Qaeda leadership had encouraged and directed Zarqawi to make expelling coalition forces out of Iraq his top priority. He followed these orders but then changed his focus later to establish an Islamic State in Iraq. This caused friction and disagreements within the leadership of Al Qaeda and Zarqawi. This disagreement combined with unrest between Al-Qaeda leadership and Zarqawi on the tactical decision to attack fellow Muslims specifically the Shiite minority raised more conflict between the two groups. Following his death, his group pledged to carry on his wish. “The establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq was announced on October 15, 2006, the proclamation also directed all Muslims to pledge allegiance to Abu Umar al-Baghdadi and acknowledge him as the Commander of the faithful” (McCants 2015, 1). The world had never heard of al-Baghdadi, nor did the fighters inside what was now called ISI.
After coalition forces withdrew from Iraq ISI became stronger. Following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, ISI established a branch in Syria called the Al-Nusra Front (“support front”). “Dissension broke out between ISI and its Syrian branch, leading to another rift between ISI and Al-Qaeda which led to the establishment of the Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS)” (Ferran and Momtaz 2015, 4). Growing tension continued between Al Qaeda and ISIS, ISIS felt that Al Qaeda had become too cautious and bogged down in attack planning and was not aggressive enough. ISIS already engaged in conflict with the Syrian regime, coalition forces, and the Iraqi government, now turned against Al Qaeda’s Al-Nusra Front.
ISIS was created as its own group, headed by The Commander of the Faithful is Abu Omar al-Baghdadi (Caliph) an Iraqi jihadist operative, whose real name is Hamid Daoud Muhammad Khalil al-Zawi. “ISIS is unlike any other terrorist group in recent memory. It must keep hidden while also running a state. That created a clandestine group of leaders anxious to protect themselves from rivals and airstrikes, but who also must engage in the mundane business of governance” (Childress 2014, 2).
In 1987, during the Saddam Hussein era, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi was expelled from Iraq and joined jihad operatives in Afghanistan who were fighting the Russians. “Between 2004 and 2005 he participated in the battles for Fallujah and received a head wound. He later had a senior role in the Al-Qaeda in Iraq leadership, retaining it until he was appointed to head of ISIS” (Meir Amit 2015, 1).
“Western officials only have rough estimates on ISIS’s total fighting force, but in late 2014, the CIA said the group was believed to be up to 30,000 fighters strong including local supporters” (Ferran and Momtaz 2015, 3). However, since 2014 ISIS has suffered under the heavy bombardment of air superiority by the United States and its numbers have most likely declined. Huge portions of foreign fighters have left their homes and at times traveled halfway around the world to join the terror group. Nicholas Rasmussen, the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, told Congress in February 2015 some 20,000 foreign fighters from 90 countries had traveled to Syria to join one group or another 3,400 of those fighters are said to have come from Western nations, including over 150 from the U.S.
This is one of America’s main concerns because of the number of fighters joining ISIS from Western nations including America. This makes it much harder for intelligence and law enforcement to track and stop attacks on the homeland when the terrorist themselves could be American. These numbers only reflect those who have tried to go join ISIS, they do not include the Americans that sympathize and support ISIS while still living in America. These individuals pose a significant threat to conduct attacks in the name of ISIS without being directly ordered to do so. Fighters train in training camps throughout Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Northern Africa, and Yemen. Fighters typically go through three months of training before being sent to the battlefield.
Structure/ Organization
The leadership council of ISIS is shrouded in mystery and is still not well known, but almost all the Islamic State’s most influential figures are Iraqi. Including many who were once Saddam loyalists, and several had been detained by the United States military at Camp Bucca in Iraq.
ISIS leadership is divided into two councils, the Shura and Sharia Council. The Shura Council is believed to have 9 to 11 members and is the governing authority of the Islamic State, it hands down orders from al-Baghdadi and his deputies, and ensures they are followed. The Sharia Council reports to Abu Bakr is considered the most powerful body, the council interprets sharia law and ensures that citizens either comply or are punished. The body of the ISIS leadership group then breaks down to six other councils. The Military, Finance, Media, Religious Affairs, Security and Intelligence, and Provincial Councils. These councils run their respective operational realms in accordance with al-Baghdadi orders and overseen by both the Sharia and Shura Councils.
Current Goal/ Motivation
The Islamic State’s texts and speeches emphasize several doctrinal concepts. The most prominent of these stipulate: all Muslims must associate exclusively with fellow true Muslims and dissociate from anyone not fitting this narrow definition; failure to rule in accordance with God’s law constitutes unbelief; fighting the Islamic State is tantamount to apostasy; all Shia Muslims are apostates deserving of death; and the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas are traitors against Islam” (Bunzel 2015, 10).
The goal for ISIS is to establish an Islamic State under sharia law led by Abu Omar al-Baghdadi while expelling all Western influence from the Middle East. The focus area of an ISIS state is in Iraq and Syria with hopes to expand the state into North Africa. This state would follow strict sharia law practices. Abu Omar al-Baghdadi also believes he has been chosen to lead an army to the end times. According to Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, he believes his army has been chosen to fight the Christian army in what is now Iraq and defeat them to fulfill the prophecy of Muhammad.
Tactics/ Capabilities
With many years of warfighting coalition forces in Iraq and the Syrian Regime, ISIS has developed a sophisticated arsenal of weapons which they procured during the conflicts. ISIS also introduced the deadly Improvised Explosive Device (IED) into the fight while also increasing their capabilities with more sophisticated weapons such as anti-air and anti-tank weapons.
The threat to America does not necessarily rely on these sophisticated weapons nor does it rely on actual ISIS members. ISIS has a very substantial propaganda capability utilizing social media and their own paper publications along with other media to get their message out to the world. The “lone wolf” who isn’t an ISIS member but a sympathizer and a person who feels called to attack Americans in the name of ISIS’s ideology is a significant threat to the United States.
Tactics to conduct an attack on America soil will likely be less sophisticated and cheaper than those tactics used on the battlefield across the Middle East and Northern Africa. Recent attacks carried out by ISIS includes mass shootings in Paris, vehicles driven into crowds of people in London and New York, the bombings in Belgium and basic IEDs. The simplicity of these threats makes it extremely difficult for intelligence officials and law enforcement to stop the attacks before they happen. Another aspect which hinders prevention of these attacks is stopping the ideology from spreading into America which causes an individual to conduct an attack in the name of ISIS, as ISIS continues to call for its followers to do.
Funding/ Connections
In 2015, David Cohen, the Treasury Department’s Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, described the Islamic State as ‘probably the best-funded terrorist organization we have confronted” (Swanson 2015, 3). Typical terrorist organizations rely heavily on wealthy donors, but ISIS does not, instead, ISIS runs a state model by utilizing its seized resources. Although ISIS has recently lost most of its territory in Iraq due to an increased air campaign by American Forces, ISIS still controls considerable amounts of territory which leads to financial stability.
“According to estimates by the Rand Corporation, the Islamic State’s total revenue rose from a little less than $1 million per month in late 2008 and early 2009 to perhaps $1 million to $3 million per day in 2014” (Swanson 2015, 3). ISIS internal operations run more like a small government vice a typical terrorist organization. The Islamic State sets and approves annual budgets, and it uses a chief financial officer-like figure to manage its accounts. “The Islamic State has established a central bank and even planned to mint its own currency” (Weiss and Hassan 2014, 2).
ISIS funding has been broken down to twelve main sources which bring the organizations millions per day in revenue. “The twelve main sources of funding include sales of antiquities, oil, taxation/extortion, kidnapping for ransom, wealthy donors, Iraqi banks, sales of other looted property, real estate, foreign fighters, agriculture, phosphate, cement, sulfur and human trafficking” (Swanson 2015, 3).
Location/ Scope/ Magnitude
ISIS bases itself in Iraq and Syria but has become a world-wide terrorist group with affiliated and unaffiliated sympathizers across the world. ISIS has also expanded operations in Northern Africa, once again preying on unstable and weak governments where they can thrive with little intervention. The threat of the ISIS army is mostly confined to Syria and Iraq, however, the threat from ISIS is global. ISIS and their sympathizers have carried numerous attacks in Europe, the United States, and many other countries.
ISIS’s ideology and the ability to convert individuals to follow their ideology by conducting attacks on their behalf makes the magnitude of the ISIS threat even bigger. ISIS has become a banner of ideology which draws individuals to their cause without joining or ever meeting an actual member of the group. This makes mitigating the threat of an ISIS-inspired attack extremely difficult to stop before the attack is carried out.
Countering The Threat
The ISIS threat poses significant challenges to the United States because of ISIS’s ability to spread its ideology through propaganda and other means. Actual members of ISIS can be monitored and tracked as intelligence is collected on foreign battlefields. However, lone wolf’s who pledge their allegiance to ISIS and are inspired by their ideology poses the most significant threat to the homeland. The United States must mitigate this threat with their own information campaign to discredit the ISIS organization and leadership. This cannot be accomplished in a vacuum; the Muslim American community needs to play a vital part in this information campaign.
Social media outlets also must play a more substantial role in monitoring activity which can tip off law enforcement allowing them to have time to investigate possible terrorist activities. The United States and its allies have made significant strides in destroying the once powerful group. This must continue to prevent continued operations within the Middle East and abroad. The ability to defeat ISIS in the Middle East discredits the group at home and must be continued. Countries across the world including in the Middle East must also continue the offensive against ISIS while discrediting their ideology and radical methods. The ISIS threat is a world-wide threat which must be countered by all countries to stop the spread of this ideology. This not a war just about bullets and conflict, this is a war about hearts and minds and a radical ideology which must be mitigated.
References
- Bunzel, Cole. 2015. From Paper State to Caliphate: The Ideology of the Islamic State. Brookings Project. Accessed December 14, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-ideology-of-the-Islamic-State.pdf.
- Childress, Sarah. 2014. ‘Who Runs the Islamic State.’ Frontline. Accessed December 15, 2018. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/who-runs-the-islamic-state/.
- Ferran, Lee, and Rym Momtaz. 2015. ‘ISIS Trail of Terror.’ ABC News. Accessed December 15, 2018. http://abcnews.go.com/WN/fullpage/isis-trail-terror-isis-threat-us-25053190.
- McCants, William. 2015. The ISIS Apocalypse: The History, Strategy and Doomsday Vision of the Islamic State. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
- Meir Amit, Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. 2015. ‘The Historical Roots and Stages in the Development of ISIS.’ Accessed December 15, 2018. http://www.crethiplethi.com/the-historical-roots-and-stages-in-the-development-of-isis/islamic-countries/syria-islamic-countries/2015/.
- Swanson, Ana. 2015. ‘How the Islamic State makes its money.’ Washington Post. Accessed December 15, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/11/18/how-isis-makes-its-money/?utm_term=.b59f8a9f157b.
- Weiss, Michael, and Hassan Hassan. 2014. ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror. Simon and Schuster.
