By the year 2021, over 385 million automobiles sold will be connected to the internet in some fashion. As our automobile technology progress, so does the capabilities of what our cars can do. One of the most significant topics in the automotive industry is that of the autonomous vehicles (AV) or better known as self-driving cars.
Once only thought of in science fiction stories, the reality of a car that requires no driving interaction by a human being is upon us, albeit in its infant or even toddler stages. However, the reality of getting into a car and traveling to our desired destination with no human driver is in our near future.
All major automobile manufacturers are researching and developing their versions of autonomous vehicles. There are currently self-driving vehicles operating and undergoing testing on public roadways in eight states. Since 2012, 41 states and Washington D.C. have introduced legislation related to autonomous vehicles. The U.S. Department of Transportation and the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration are working feverishly with the auto industry to develop guidance for automated driving systems.
127 our experts are availableright now
In 2016, the NHSTA published the Federal Automated Vehicles Policy with potential new regulatory tools and statutory authorities in regards to highway safety for self-driving vehicles. This initial regulatory guidance indicates that the United States government sees that these types of automobiles are on the horizon and is attempting to get ahead of them by implementing laws and guidelines that will govern the usage as soon as they begin hitting our roadways. It is very evident that the futuristic cars we dreamed about as children will soon be parked in our driveways and garages.
What are the benefits of a self-driving car? Why would we want to relinquish physical control of a 4,000-pound chunk of rolling metal and plastic to a computer with artificial intelligence? Proponents of autonomous vehicles believe that the benefits are paramount. One critical fact engrains the possibility to save lives and reduce injuries caused by automobile accidents: according to the NHTSA, 94 percent of serious crashes are due to human error.
In 2016, there were 37,461 lives were lost on U.S. roads, this was a 5.6 percent increase from 2015 (NHTSA, 2017). Motor vehicle crashes were the leading cause of death for Americans ages 16 through 23 in 2015 according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Accidents involving drunk or impaired driving, are speeding-related, distraction-related, and motorcyclist accidents were the four leading causes of fatalities on American roadways in 2016.
Many people within the automobile industry and agencies which govern the transportation industry, including the U.S. DOT and NHTSA, believe that autonomous vehicles have the potential to remove the human error from car accident equations which in turn will help protect people traveling in cars on our roadways.
Other benefits that self-driving cars could deliver is economical and societal benefits. “motor vehicle accidents cost $242 billion in economic activity, including $57.6 billion in lost workplace productivity, and $594 billion due to loss of life and decreased quality of life due to injuries. Eliminating the vast majority of motor vehicle crashes could erase these costs” (NHTSA, 2017).
It is also believed that autonomous vehicles will reduce traffic congestion and improve traffic flow thereby decreasing commuting times. AV’s can also transform mobility issues for the elderly and disabled that are unable to operate automobiles.
As the technology for autonomous vehicles continues to develop, it is only natural that self-driving automobiles are the future of the automobile industry. Automotive manufacturer’s current predictions for self-driving cars are incredibly optimistic.
With multiple manufacturers developing their versions of self-driving cars and all possessing their technologies, none are exactly alike. The Society of Automotive Engineers, or SAE, created standards for autonomous vehicles for manufacturers to follow in ensuring that these vehicles all adhere to standard levels of automation. The SAE created six levels of automation for auto manufacturers, suppliers, and automotive policymakers to use to classify a system’s sophistication. These six levels of autonomy in the self-driving car industry are explained in an article appearing in Car and Driver magazine (Car and Driver, 2017).
- Level 0 – No automation, humans entirely control it.
- Level 1 – Under certain conditions, the car controls either the steering or the vehicle speed, but not both simultaneously. The driver performs all other aspects of driving.
- Level 2 – The car can steer, accelerate, and brake in certain circumstances. Tactical maneuvers such as responding to traffic signals or changing lanes mostly fall to the driver, as does scanning for hazards.
- Level 3 – The car can manage most aspects of driving, including monitoring the environment. The system prompts the driver to intervene when it encounters a scenario it can’t navigate.
- Level 4 – The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area.
- Level 5 – The driverless car can operate on any road and in any conditions a human driver could negotiate.
There are currently no level 5 cars on the roadways yet. However, BMW claims that they will have both level 4 and level 5 autonomous vehicles ready by the year 2021, and Audi and Ford project to reach level 4 by 2020. Autonomy systems specialist Nvidia who leads the autonomous industry with its artificial intelligence platforms announced in 2017 that fully self-driving cars (a.k.a. level 5 autonomy) would be on the road by 2025 and Bosch, another leading technology company, declared it also would have level 4 autonomy by the same date.
With autonomous cars soon to be hitting our roadways, there are opposing arguments which have arisen. Is it ethical to have computer-controlled vehicles or artificial intelligence-equipped vehicles make decisions that can potentially cause harm, including death, in situations as opposed to keeping this sort of decision making in the hands of humans? An incident happened in March of 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona where an Uber self-driving vehicle struck a pedestrian, killing the woman. However, upon investigation, the woman who was hit, had crossed the road outside of a marked crosswalk (jaywalking) and the self-driving vehicle which was in autonomous mode at the time of the accident, did have a driver behind the wheel. Again, human error contributed to another fatal crash involving a vehicle.
A second accident occurred in May of 2018, again in the Phoenix area involving another self-driving car. Still, the vehicle was in autonomous mode with a human driver behind the wheel. This time a second vehicle driven by a human, swerved across the median and struck the AV. Another case of a human error which is believed can be eliminated with more self-driving cars.
Self-driving cars are currently unable to react to uncertain situations with the same skills and reactions of a human driver, nor do they possess the ability to foresee potential adverse circumstances and avoid them. They are unable to think ahead about possible events which may lay ahead. However, by combining the two elements, human interaction with autonomy, may be the best option for the near future until technology advances enough to address this issue. The airline industry has been using autonomous aircraft for years with the “auto-pilot” feature while including human pilots in the cockpit. Most landings and take off’s in commercial airlines are conducted with their sophisticated autopiloting systems. Boeing 737’s, 757’s, and 767’s can practically fly themselves on autopilot with human pilots actively monitoring and managing the aircraft.
With the surge of the cyber-crimes and attacks taking place in the world today, how will we be able to prevent someone from hacking into our cars and deliberately cause accidents, commit crimes, or disrupt traffic? In 2015, two men were successfully able to commandeer a Jeep Cherokee being driven on a highway. By hacking into the vehicle’s entertainment software through a vulnerability they discovered, the two were successfully able to take over steering, braking, and transmission, as well as all functions of the vehicle’s dashboard.
Previous generations of automobiles did not have to be protected from hackers. But they did have their security problems, mainly being stolen by a car thief by smashing a window and “hot wiring” the vehicle’s ignition wiring. Today’s vehicles all have computers which control, monitors, and manages the engine, drive train, and the vehicles entertainment systems. While most have a level of security built into them, it is “rudimentary at best, and easily overcome” (Ferguson, 2018).
One possible scenario for hacking an autonomous vehicle would be for ransom. Imagine you enter your car to go to work, and instead of the friendly digital voice you have grown to trust, you are greeted by a hacker demanding you to pay a ransom in Bitcoin to have control of your vehicle again. Another scenario would be for a terrorist commandeering your car to commit any heinous attack on innocent civilians from the safety of their home thousands of miles away.
It is estimated that by the year 2021, over 385 million automobiles sold will be connected to the internet in some fashion. While there currently are no level 5 autonomous vehicles on the road, any of these other vehicles are subject to being hacked. It is imperative that the automotive industry incorporates cybersecurity into the development and production of automobiles.
With technology that is currently available and which continues to grow, it is only natural that self-driving automobiles are the future of the automobile industry. The one thing that “differentiates the autonomous vehicle from even the most advanced cars rolling off the production lines in places like Detroit: So. Much. Software. More than half a million lines of code will power the various systems and algorithms that could one day help self-driving cars go anywhere” (Marshall, 2018).
Some people welcome the age of self-driving cars and those that are against it; one thing is for sure, self-driving cars are in our near future. Perhaps people in the late 1880’s felt the same way when the first “horseless carriage” made its debut in Germany and France. Or when Henry Ford innovated his mass production techniques that lowered the cost of automobiles making them available to practically everyone, thus indeed began replacing the horse as the primary source of transportation.
In a study conducted by The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute in 2015, 43.8% of respondents preference for no self-driving cars, followed by partially self-driving (40.6%), with entirely self-driving being the least preferred (15.6%) (Sivak, 2015).
For now, Americans see self-driving cars as inevitable within the next ten to 50 years, but less than half want to ride in one. Lack of trust remains the top concern. People are less forgiving for errors made by computers than they are towards humans. We need to acknowledge and change our emotional biases about our automobiles and look harder at the benefits that self-driving cars can bring to our lives.
Whether we as consumers like the idea of self-driving cars or not, the fact is that the automobile industry has already made their case to the Department of Transportation and the National Highway Safety Administration both here in the United States and with governing agencies abroad, that these types of vehicles can save lives and money, and have been greenlit for the future. Within the next three to five years, we will see these vehicles operating on the roads we drive on.
References
- Car and Driver. (2017, October). The path to Autonomy: Self-Driving Car Levels 0 to 5 Explained. Retrieved from www.caranddriver.com: https://www.caranddriver.com/features/path-to-autonomy-self-driving-car-levels-0-to-5-explained-feature
- Ferguson, R. (2018, February 1). A Brief History of Hacking Internet-Connected Cars. Retrieved from medium.com: https://medium.com/s/new-world-crime/a-brief-history-of-hacking-internet-connected-cars-and-where-we-go-from-here-5c00f3c8825a
- Marshall, A. (2018, April 08). The Never-Ending Self-Driving Car Project. Retrieved from www.wired.com: https://www.wired.com/story/when-will-self-driving-cars-ready/
- NHTSA. (2017, October 06). U.S. DOT Releases 2016 Fatal Traffic Crash Data. Retrieved from www.nhtsa.gov: https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/usdot-releases-2016-fatal-traffic-crash-data
- Sivak, B. S. (2015). Motorists’ Preferences for Different Levels of Vehicle Automation. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.
